June 24, 2026 · AL East
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
@
Probable starters
AWAY · HOU
HOME · TOR
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
HOU starter vs Blue Jays lineup
Mike Burrows (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .315
-
1 EC Ernie Clement SH .288
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .345
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .285
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 GS George Springer RHB .335
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .324
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
- Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
TOR starter vs Astros lineup
Trey Yesavage (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .316
-
1 CW Christian Walker RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .376
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
3 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .297
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .285
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (30% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · HOU
Lineup 3.9 R
Bunts 1.1 R
IBBs 0.5 R
HOME · TOR
Lineup 1.1 R
Bunts 2.3 R
IBBs 1.5 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · HOU
- Available 4
- Limited 2
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 0
HOME · TOR
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · HOU
6-4
L1
-5 run diff
LWLWWWLLWW
HOME · TOR
6-3
W1
-5 run diff
W?WLWWWLLW
Season series: 0-1 with HOU listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Astros and Blue Jays staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.