June 23, 2026 · AL East
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
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Probable starters
AWAY · KC
HOME · TB
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
KC starter vs Rays lineup
Luinder Avila (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .306
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1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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4 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .343
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .281
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 TW Taylor Walls SH .277
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
- Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
TB starter vs Royals lineup
Shane McClanahan (LHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .321
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1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .355
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .322
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .335
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 IC Isaac Collins SH .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 MM Michael Massey LHB .297
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 NL Nick Loftin RHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
- Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · KC
Lineup 3.1 R
Bunts 1.6 R
IBBs 1.5 R
HOME · TB
Lineup 1.3 R
Bunts 2.5 R
IBBs 2.8 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · KC
- Available 7
- Limited 2
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · TB
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · KC
5-5
W1
+7 run diff
WLWWWLLWLL
HOME · TB
3-7
L1
-5 run diff
LWLWLLLWLL
Season series: 1-0 with KC listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Royals and Rays staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.