PREVIEW Starts 7:10 PM ET · Citi Field
June 23, 2026 · NL East

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

June 23, 20267:10 PM ETCiti Field
AWAY
Chicago Cubs
40-37
—
@
HOME
New York Mets
34-43
—

Probable starters

AWAY · CHC
Edward Cabrera
Edward Cabrera
HOME · NYM
Kodai Senga
Kodai Senga

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

CHC starter vs Mets lineup

Edward Cabrera (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 MS Marcus Semien RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CB Carson Benge LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Juan Soto LHB .384
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .456 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MV Mark Vientos RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mark Vientos
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Edward Cabrera vs Mets: full season matchup breakdown →
NYM starter vs Cubs lineup

Kodai Senga (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .331
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • FO (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Kodai Senga vs Cubs: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · CHC
Craig Counsell
Craig Counsell
Lineup 2.6 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · NYM
Carlos Mendoza
Carlos Mendoza
Lineup 3.7 R Bunts 1.8 R IBBs 1.5 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · CHC
  • Available 8
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · NYM
  • Available 9
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · CHC
5-3 ?2 +17 run diff
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HOME · NYM
4-5 ?1 -13 run diff
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Season series: 0-0 with CHC listed first across 1 prior meeting.

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Cubs and Mets staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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