June 23, 2026 · AL East
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
@
Probable starters
AWAY · HOU
HOME · TOR
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
HOU starter vs Blue Jays lineup
Peter Lambert (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .316
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1 EC Ernie Clement SH .293
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .343
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .285
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 GS George Springer RHB .334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
- Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Sinker (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
TOR starter vs Astros lineup
Shane Bieber (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .314
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1 CW Christian Walker RHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .385
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
3 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .283
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (21% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (13% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · HOU
Lineup 3.9 R
Bunts 1.1 R
IBBs 0.5 R
HOME · TOR
Lineup 1.1 R
Bunts 2.3 R
IBBs 1.5 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · HOU
- Available 4
- Limited 2
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 0
HOME · TOR
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · HOU
6-4
L1
-5 run diff
LWLWWWLLWW
HOME · TOR
6-3
W1
-5 run diff
W?WLWWWLLW
Season series: 0-1 with HOU listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Astros and Blue Jays staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.