Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward DH
- 3 Dylan Beavers LF
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Samuel Basallo C
- 6 Tyler O'Neill RF
- 7 Colton Cowser CF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 1 Otto Lopez SS
- 2 Connor Norby 1B
- 3 Liam Hicks C
- 4 Christopher Morel DH
- 5 Heriberto Hernández LF
- 6 Esteury Ruiz RF
- 7 Jakob Marsee CF
- 8 Leo Jiménez 2B
- 9 Javier Sanoja 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| MIA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.27 vs actual lineup 3.31
- Player execution −0.31 R/G Players fell 0.31 short of the lineup's 3.31 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ward 0-for-3 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.09 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.87 vs actual lineup 4.78
- Player execution −0.78 R/G Players fell 0.78 short of the lineup's 4.78 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.87 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Morel 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.3 – 4.9 — actual was 3 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.