St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 Jackson Merrill CF
- 2 Miguel Andujar DH
- 3 Manny Machado 3B
- 4 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Ramón Laureano LF
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Nick Castellanos RF
- 9 Rodolfo Durán C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-0 with STL listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.14
- Player execution −1.14 R/G Players fell 1.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Herrera 0-for-3 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.94 vs actual lineup 3.96
- Player execution −2.96 R/G Players fell 2.96 short of the lineup's 3.96 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −2.94 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Merrill 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 3.9 — actual was 2 – 1.
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Iván Herrera reaches base in 23 consecutive gamesIván Herrera (STL) has reached base safely in 23 straight games — past the 20-game watermark.
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Craig Stammen (SD) has run 25 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 83% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
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Oliver Marmol (STL) has run 20 distinct starting lineups across 29 games this season — that's 69% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 13 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.