Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jarren Duran LF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 4 Trevor Story SS
- 5 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 6 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 1 Kevin McGonigle SS
- 2 Matt Vierling CF
- 3 Colt Keith 3B
- 4 Riley Greene LF
- 5 Dillon Dingler C
- 6 Kerry Carpenter RF
- 7 Zach McKinstry 2B
- 8 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 9 Jace Jung DH
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 5-2 with BOS listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.13 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.83 vs actual lineup 4.70
- Player execution −0.70 R/G Players fell 0.70 short of the lineup's 4.70 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.83 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Duran 0-for-3 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.80 vs actual lineup 3.81
- Player execution −3.81 R/G Players fell 3.81 short of the lineup's 3.81 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −3.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
McGonigle 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.8 — actual was 4 – 0.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.