San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jackson Merrill CF
- 2 Manny Machado 3B
- 3 Miguel Andujar DH
- 4 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 5 Fernando Tatis Jr. 2B
- 6 Ramón Laureano LF
- 7 Nick Castellanos RF
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Sung-Mun Song SS
- 1 Heliot Ramos LF
- 2 Jung Hoo Lee CF
- 3 Casey Schmitt 2B
- 4 Matt Chapman 3B
- 5 Rafael Devers 1B
- 6 Willy Adames SS
- 7 Bryce Eldridge DH
- 8 Jesus Rodriguez RF
- 9 Patrick Bailey C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with SD listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.72 vs actual lineup 4.64
- Player execution +0.36 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.64 projection by 0.36 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Machado 0-for-3 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.79 vs actual lineup 4.88
- Player execution −3.88 R/G Players fell 3.88 short of the lineup's 4.88 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.79 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Ramos 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.8 — actual was 5 – 1.
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Tony Vitello (SF) has run 27 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 90% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.