Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Adley Rutschman C
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Samuel Basallo DH
- 6 Leody Taveras CF
- 7 Dylan Beavers RF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 1 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 2 Liam Hicks 1B
- 3 Connor Norby 3B
- 4 Kyle Stowers LF
- 5 Jakob Marsee CF
- 6 Christopher Morel DH
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Joe Mack C
- 9 Javier Sanoja SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| MIA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.96 vs actual lineup 4.89
- Player execution +2.11 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.89 projection by 2.11 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Henderson 0-for-5 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.16 vs actual lineup 4.08
- Player execution −0.08 R/G Players fell 0.08 short of the lineup's 4.08 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Edwards 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 4.2 — actual was 7 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.