Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Shohei Ohtani DH
- 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
- 3 Teoscar Hernández LF
- 4 Kyle Tucker RF
- 5 Max Muncy 3B
- 6 Andy Pages CF
- 7 Dalton Rushing C
- 8 Hyeseong Kim SS
- 9 Alex Freeland 2B
- 1 Brice Matthews 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Cam Smith RF
- 6 Zach Cole CF
- 7 Zach Dezenzo LF
- 8 Braden Shewmake SS
- 9 César Salazar C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with LAD listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 5.00 vs actual lineup 4.93
- Player execution +7.07 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.93 projection by 7.07 (scored 12)
- Game variance +7.00 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rushing 2-for-5 from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.13 vs actual lineup 3.03
- Player execution −1.03 R/G Players fell 1.03 short of the lineup's 3.03 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 3.1 — actual was 12 – 2.
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Dave Roberts (LAD) has run 29 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 97% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.