Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Drake Baldwin DH
- 2 Ozzie Albies 2B
- 3 Matt Olson 1B
- 4 Michael Harris II LF
- 5 Mauricio Dubón CF
- 6 Austin Riley 3B
- 7 Mike Yastrzemski RF
- 8 Sean Murphy C
- 9 Jim Jarvis SS
- 1 J.P. Crawford SS
- 2 Cal Raleigh DH
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Cole Young 2B
- 7 Connor Joe RF
- 8 Jhonny Pereda C
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with ATL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.01 vs actual lineup 4.03
- Player execution −3.03 R/G Players fell 3.03 short of the lineup's 4.03 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.01 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Albies 0-for-3 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.88 vs actual lineup 2.84
- Player execution +0.16 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.84 projection by 0.16 (scored 3)
- Game variance +0.12 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Raleigh 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 2.9 — actual was 1 – 3.
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Walt Weiss (ATL) has run 27 distinct starting lineups across 30 games this season — that's 90% turnover game-to-game. Most managers stay below 14 for the same span.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.