ARCHIVE May 6, 2026
May 6, 2026 · AL East

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

May 6, 2026Tropicana FieldDome 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Toronto Blue Jays
16-21
0
vs
HOME
Tampa Bay Rays
24-12
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TOR
Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin
IP 5.1
HOME · TB
Shane McClanahan
Shane McClanahan
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · TOR
  1. 1 George Springer DH
  2. 2 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 Lenyn Sosa 2B
  5. 5 Ernie Clement SS
  6. 6 Davis Schneider LF
  7. 7 Myles Straw CF
  8. 8 Yohendrick Piñango RF
  9. 9 Tyler Heineman C
HOME · TB
  1. 1 Yandy Díaz DH
  2. 2 Ryan Vilade RF
  3. 3 Junior Caminero 3B
  4. 4 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  5. 5 Jonny DeLuca CF
  6. 6 Ben Williamson 2B
  7. 7 Chandler Simpson LF
  8. 8 Nick Fortes C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS

Box score

  123456789 R
TOR 000000000 0
TB 000200010 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R
HOME · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW
HOME · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW

Season series: 0-3 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.10 vs actual lineup 3.12
  • Player execution −3.12 R/G Players fell 3.12 short of the lineup's 3.12 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −3.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Springer 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.73 vs actual lineup 3.75
  • Player execution −0.75 R/G Players fell 0.75 short of the lineup's 3.75 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.73 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Caminero 0-for-4 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.7 — actual was 0 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.