ARCHIVE May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026 · NL East

Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals

May 5, 2026Nationals ParkPartly Cloudy 82°F · 16 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Minnesota Twins
16-20
11
vs
HOME
Washington Nationals
16-20
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIN
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley
IP 6
HOME · WSH
Cade Cavalli
Cade Cavalli
IP 4

Lineups

AWAY · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Trevor Larnach LF
  3. 3 Ryan Jeffers C
  4. 4 Josh Bell DH
  5. 5 Austin Martin RF
  6. 6 Kody Clemens 1B
  7. 7 Luke Keaschall 2B
  8. 8 Brooks Lee SS
  9. 9 Royce Lewis 3B
HOME · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Daylen Lile LF
  3. 3 Curtis Mead 1B
  4. 4 CJ Abrams SS
  5. 5 Jacob Young CF
  6. 6 Jorbit Vivas 3B
  7. 7 Nasim Nuñez 2B
  8. 8 José Tena DH
  9. 9 Keibert Ruiz C

Box score

  123456789 R
MIN 020400131 11
WSH 100010100 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL
HOME · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
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Season series: 1-2 with MIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.05 vs actual lineup 4.04
  • Player execution +6.96 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.04 projection by 6.96 (scored 11)
  • Game variance +6.95 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lee 3-for-5 from the 8-hole

HOME · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.21 vs actual lineup 3.17
  • Player execution −0.17 R/G Players fell 0.17 short of the lineup's 3.17 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Abrams 0-for-4 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 3.2 — actual was 11 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.