Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Dylan Beavers DH
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Samuel Basallo C
- 6 Leody Taveras CF
- 7 Colton Cowser RF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Blaze Alexander 2B
- 1 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 2 Liam Hicks 1B
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Kyle Stowers LF
- 5 Jakob Marsee CF
- 6 Connor Norby DH
- 7 Joe Mack C
- 8 Owen Caissie RF
- 9 Graham Pauley 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| MIA | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with BAL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.20 vs actual lineup 4.12
- Player execution +4.88 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.12 projection by 4.88 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.85
- Player execution +2.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.85 projection by 2.15 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stowers 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 4.8 — actual was 9 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.