Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Dalton Rushing DH
- 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
- 3 Will Smith C
- 4 Kyle Tucker RF
- 5 Teoscar Hernández LF
- 6 Max Muncy 3B
- 7 Andy Pages CF
- 8 Alex Freeland 2B
- 9 Miguel Rojas SS
- 1 Jose Altuve 2B
- 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
- 3 Isaac Paredes 1B
- 4 Christian Walker DH
- 5 Cam Smith RF
- 6 Zach Cole CF
- 7 Christian Vázquez C
- 8 Nick Allen SS
- 9 Braden Shewmake 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with LAD listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.82 vs actual lineup 2.84
- Player execution −1.84 R/G Players fell 1.84 short of the lineup's 2.84 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −1.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Smith 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.46 vs actual lineup 2.38
- Player execution −0.38 R/G Players fell 0.38 short of the lineup's 2.38 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −0.46 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Shewmake HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 2.5 — actual was 1 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.