ARCHIVE May 5, 2026
May 5, 2026 · AL West

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros

May 5, 2026Daikin ParkRoof Closed 73°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Los Angeles Dodgers
22-14
1
vs
HOME
Houston Astros
15-22
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · LAD
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
IP 7
HOME · HOU
Peter Lambert
Peter Lambert
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · LAD
  1. 1 Dalton Rushing DH
  2. 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
  3. 3 Will Smith C
  4. 4 Kyle Tucker RF
  5. 5 Teoscar Hernández LF
  6. 6 Max Muncy 3B
  7. 7 Andy Pages CF
  8. 8 Alex Freeland 2B
  9. 9 Miguel Rojas SS
HOME · HOU
  1. 1 Jose Altuve 2B
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
  3. 3 Isaac Paredes 1B
  4. 4 Christian Walker DH
  5. 5 Cam Smith RF
  6. 6 Zach Cole CF
  7. 7 Christian Vázquez C
  8. 8 Nick Allen SS
  9. 9 Braden Shewmake 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
LAD 000000010 1
HOU 011000000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / D+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · LAD
Dave Roberts
B Lineup 0.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.0 R
HOME · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · LAD
5-5 W1 +16 run diff
WLWWLLLLWW
HOME · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
WLWLWWLLW?

Season series: 2-1 with LAD listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.82 vs actual lineup 2.84
  • Player execution −1.84 R/G Players fell 1.84 short of the lineup's 2.84 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −1.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Smith 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.46 vs actual lineup 2.38
  • Player execution −0.38 R/G Players fell 0.38 short of the lineup's 2.38 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −0.46 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Shewmake HR from the 9-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.8 – 2.5 — actual was 1 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.