Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jarren Duran DH
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Roman Anthony LF
- 4 Trevor Story SS
- 5 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 6 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 7 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Andruw Monasterio 3B
- 1 Jahmai Jones DH
- 2 Matt Vierling CF
- 3 Dillon Dingler C
- 4 Riley Greene LF
- 5 Spencer Torkelson 1B
- 6 Wenceel Pérez RF
- 7 Hao-Yu Lee 2B
- 8 Colt Keith 3B
- 9 Zack Short SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 5-2 with BOS listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.28 vs actual lineup 4.23
- Player execution +0.77 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.23 projection by 0.77 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.72 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Contreras 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.84 vs actual lineup 2.78
- Player execution +1.22 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.78 projection by 1.22 (scored 4)
- Game variance +1.16 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Vierling 0-for-3 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 2.8 — actual was 5 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.