San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 7 Miguel Andujar DH
- 8 Freddy Fermin C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Jung Hoo Lee RF
- 2 Casey Schmitt 3B
- 3 Luis Arraez 2B
- 4 Heliot Ramos LF
- 5 Rafael Devers 1B
- 6 Willy Adames SS
- 7 Bryce Eldridge DH
- 8 Jesus Rodriguez C
- 9 Drew Gilbert CF
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with SD listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.33 vs actual lineup 2.35
- Player execution −0.35 R/G Players fell 0.35 short of the lineup's 2.35 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −0.33 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Jr. 0-for-4 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.52 vs actual lineup 3.45
- Player execution −0.45 R/G Players fell 0.45 short of the lineup's 3.45 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lee 0-for-4 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 2.3 – 3.5 — actual was 2 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.