Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Drake Baldwin DH
- 2 Ozzie Albies 2B
- 3 Matt Olson 1B
- 4 Mauricio Dubón CF
- 5 Austin Riley 3B
- 6 Mike Yastrzemski LF
- 7 Sean Murphy C
- 8 Eli White RF
- 9 Jorge Mateo SS
- 1 J.P. Crawford SS
- 2 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 3 Josh Naylor 1B
- 4 Randy Arozarena LF
- 5 Dominic Canzone DH
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 Cole Young 2B
- 8 Mitch Garver C
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with ATL listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.96 vs actual lineup 3.97
- Player execution +0.03 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.97 projection by 0.03 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Dubón 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.92 vs actual lineup 3.81
- Player execution +1.19 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.81 projection by 1.19 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.0 – 3.9 — actual was 4 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.