ARCHIVE May 3, 2026
May 3, 2026 · AL East

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

May 3, 2026Yankee StadiumPartly Cloudy 60°F · 18 mph, Varies
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
15-19
3
vs
HOME
New York Yankees
23-11
11

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Trey Gibson
Trey Gibson
IP 4.2
HOME · NYY
Max Fried
Max Fried
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Taylor Ward LF
  2. 2 Adley Rutschman C
  3. 3 Pete Alonso DH
  4. 4 Tyler O'Neill RF
  5. 5 Coby Mayo 1B
  6. 6 Leody Taveras CF
  7. 7 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
  8. 8 Weston Wilson 3B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander SS
HOME · NYY
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Ben Rice 1B
  3. 3 Aaron Judge RF
  4. 4 Cody Bellinger LF
  5. 5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  6. 6 Jasson Domínguez DH
  7. 7 Austin Wells C
  8. 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
  9. 9 José Caballero SS

Box score

  123456789 R
BAL 001200000 3
NYY 102001070 11

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · NYY
Aaron Boone
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
LLWWLLLLWL
HOME · NYY
7-3 L1 +26 run diff
LWLWWWWWLW

Season series: 0-4 with BAL listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.93 vs actual lineup 2.87
  • Player execution +0.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.87 projection by 0.13 (scored 3)
  • Game variance +0.07 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ward 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · New York Yankees
  • Manager lineup cost +0.26 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.99 vs actual lineup 4.73
  • Player execution +6.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 6.27 (scored 11)
  • Game variance +6.01 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Grisham 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.9 – 5.0 — actual was 3 – 11.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.