ARCHIVE May 3, 2026
May 3, 2026 · AL West

Cleveland Guardians vs Oakland Athletics

May 3, 2026Sutter Health ParkCloudy 64°F · 11 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Cleveland Guardians
18-17
1
vs
HOME
Oakland Athletics
18-16
7

Starting pitchers

AWAY · CLE
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
IP 5
HOME · ATH
Aaron Civale
Aaron Civale
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan LF
  2. 2 Chase DeLauter RF
  3. 3 José Ramírez DH
  4. 4 Kyle Manzardo 1B
  5. 5 Daniel Schneemann 3B
  6. 6 Travis Bazzana 2B
  7. 7 Petey Halpin CF
  8. 8 Austin Hedges C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS
HOME · ATH
  1. 1 Jacob Wilson SS
  2. 2 Brent Rooker DH
  3. 3 Nick Kurtz 1B
  4. 4 Colby Thomas RF
  5. 5 Zack Gelof CF
  6. 6 Tyler Soderstrom LF
  7. 7 Austin Wynns C
  8. 8 Darell Hernaiz 3B
  9. 9 Jeff McNeil 2B

Box score

  123456789 R
CLE 000010000 1
ATH 010033000 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · ATH
Mark Kotsay
C- Lineup 2.6 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL
HOME · ATH
5-5 W2 -1 run diff
WWLLWLLWWL

Season series: 2-1 with CLE listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost −0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.10 vs actual lineup 3.22
  • Player execution −2.22 R/G Players fell 2.22 short of the lineup's 3.22 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.10 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Kwan 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Oakland Athletics
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.87 vs actual lineup 2.82
  • Player execution +4.18 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.82 projection by 4.18 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +4.13 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

McNeil 2-for-4 from the 9-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 2.9 — actual was 1 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.