ARCHIVE May 3, 2026
May 3, 2026 · NL Cent

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 3, 2026Busch StadiumSunny 68°F · 16 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Los Angeles Dodgers
21-13
4
vs
HOME
St. Louis Cardinals
20-14
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · LAD
Justin Wrobleski
Justin Wrobleski
IP 6
HOME · STL
Dustin May
Dustin May
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · LAD
  1. 1 Shohei Ohtani DH
  2. 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
  3. 3 Teoscar Hernández LF
  4. 4 Kyle Tucker RF
  5. 5 Max Muncy 3B
  6. 6 Dalton Rushing C
  7. 7 Andy Pages CF
  8. 8 Hyeseong Kim SS
  9. 9 Alex Freeland 2B
HOME · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Jordan Walker RF
  4. 4 Alec Burleson 1B
  5. 5 Masyn Winn SS
  6. 6 José Fermín LF
  7. 7 Nathan Church CF
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Ramón Urías 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
LAD 020010001 4
STL 000000010 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · LAD
Dave Roberts
B Lineup 0.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.0 R
HOME · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · LAD
5-5 W1 +16 run diff
WLWWLLLLWW
HOME · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
WL?WLWWWWW

Season series: 1-2 with LAD listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 5.00 vs actual lineup 5.07
  • Player execution −1.07 R/G Players fell 1.07 short of the lineup's 5.07 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −1.00 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ohtani 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.44 vs actual lineup 2.45
  • Player execution −1.45 R/G Players fell 1.45 short of the lineup's 2.45 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −1.44 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Herrera 0-for-3 batting 2nd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 5.0 – 2.4 — actual was 4 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.