ARCHIVE May 3, 2026
May 3, 2026 · NL West

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies

May 3, 2026Coors FieldCloudy 73°F · 8 mph, In From RF
AWAY
Atlanta Braves
25-10
11
vs
HOME
Colorado Rockies
14-21
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · ATL
Spencer Strider
Spencer Strider
IP 3.1
HOME · COL
Kyle Freeland
Kyle Freeland
IP 4.1

Lineups

AWAY · ATL
  1. 1 Mauricio Dubón CF
  2. 2 Drake Baldwin DH
  3. 3 Ozzie Albies 2B
  4. 4 Matt Olson 1B
  5. 5 Austin Riley 3B
  6. 6 Eli White LF
  7. 7 Jonah Heim C
  8. 8 Jorge Mateo SS
  9. 9 José Azocar RF
HOME · COL
  1. 1 Edouard Julien 2B
  2. 2 Mickey Moniak LF
  3. 3 Hunter Goodman DH
  4. 4 TJ Rumfield 1B
  5. 5 Troy Johnston RF
  6. 6 Willi Castro 3B
  7. 7 Brett Sullivan C
  8. 8 Ezequiel Tovar SS
  9. 9 Jake McCarthy CF

Box score

  123456789 R
ATL 030032003 11
COL 101210010 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · ATL
Walt Weiss
C+ Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 0.2 R
HOME · COL
Warren Schaeffer
C Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.9 R

Recent form

AWAY · ATL
7-3 L1 +18 run diff
LWLWWWLWWW
HOME · COL
3-6 W2 -7 run diff
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Season series: 3-0 with ATL listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Atlanta Braves
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.66
  • Player execution +6.34 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.66 projection by 6.34 (scored 11)
  • Game variance +6.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Heim HR from the 7-hole

HOME · Colorado Rockies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.76 vs actual lineup 4.63
  • Player execution +1.37 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.63 projection by 1.37 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.24 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Julien 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 4.8 — actual was 11 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.