Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Yohendrick Piñango LF
- 2 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. DH
- 4 Jesús Sánchez RF
- 5 Lenyn Sosa 1B
- 6 Daulton Varsho CF
- 7 Ernie Clement 2B
- 8 Andrés Giménez SS
- 9 Tyler Heineman C
- 1 Byron Buxton DH
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Austin Martin CF
- 4 Victor Caratini C
- 5 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 6 Kody Clemens 1B
- 7 Royce Lewis 3B
- 8 Matt Wallner RF
- 9 Brooks Lee SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-4 with TOR listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.34 vs actual lineup 4.23
- Player execution −1.23 R/G Players fell 1.23 short of the lineup's 4.23 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.34 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.41 vs actual lineup 2.41
- Player execution +1.59 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.41 projection by 1.59 (scored 4)
- Game variance +1.59 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Buxton 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 2.4 — actual was 3 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.