ARCHIVE May 3, 2026
May 3, 2026 · AL East

Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox

May 3, 2026Fenway ParkCloudy 50°F · 6 mph, In From LF
AWAY
Houston Astros
14-21
3
vs
HOME
Boston Red Sox
13-21
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · HOU
AJ Blubaugh
AJ Blubaugh
IP 3.2
HOME · BOS
Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez
IP 4

Lineups

AWAY · HOU
  1. 1 Carlos Correa SS
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
  3. 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
  4. 4 Christian Walker 1B
  5. 5 Jose Altuve 2B
  6. 6 Brice Matthews CF
  7. 7 Cam Smith RF
  8. 8 Christian Vázquez C
  9. 9 Dustin Harris LF
HOME · BOS
  1. 1 Jarren Duran LF
  2. 2 Willson Contreras 1B
  3. 3 Roman Anthony DH
  4. 4 Wilyer Abreu RF
  5. 5 Andruw Monasterio SS
  6. 6 Marcelo Mayer 2B
  7. 7 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  8. 8 Carlos Narváez C
  9. 9 Caleb Durbin 3B

Box score

  12345678910 R
HOU 0000010002 3
BOS 0000100000 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade D+ / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · HOU
Joe Espada
D+ Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R
HOME · BOS
Chad Tracy
C- Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.1 R IBBs 0.2 R Interim

Recent form

AWAY · HOU
5-4 W1 -2 run diff
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HOME · BOS
5-5 W1 -3 run diff
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Season series: 2-1 with HOU listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Houston Astros
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.18 vs actual lineup 3.16
  • Player execution −0.16 R/G Players fell 0.16 short of the lineup's 3.16 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.18 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Correa 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · Boston Red Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.82 vs actual lineup 4.81
  • Player execution −3.81 R/G Players fell 3.81 short of the lineup's 4.81 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.82 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Abreu 0-for-3 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.8 — actual was 3 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.