ARCHIVE May 2, 2026
May 2, 2026 · AL West

Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners

May 2, 2026T-Mobile ParkClear 70°F · 0 mph, Calm
AWAY
Kansas City Royals
14-19
3
vs
HOME
Seattle Mariners
16-18
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · KC
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
IP 6
HOME · SEA
Emerson Hancock
Emerson Hancock
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · KC
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez DH
  5. 5 Carter Jensen C
  6. 6 Jac Caglianone RF
  7. 7 Isaac Collins LF
  8. 8 Michael Massey 2B
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF
HOME · SEA
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Julio Rodríguez CF
  3. 3 Josh Naylor 1B
  4. 4 Randy Arozarena LF
  5. 5 Cole Young 2B
  6. 6 Dominic Canzone DH
  7. 7 Luke Raley RF
  8. 8 Mitch Garver C
  9. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

Box score

  12345678910 R
KC 0010000011 3
SEA 1000100000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · KC
Matt Quatraro
C Lineup 1.9 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R

Recent form

AWAY · KC
6-4 W1 +1 run diff
WLLWWWWWLL
HOME · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL

Season series: 3-0 with KC listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Kansas City Royals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.14 vs actual lineup 3.08
  • Player execution −0.08 R/G Players fell 0.08 short of the lineup's 3.08 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.14 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

HOME · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.24 vs actual lineup 3.16
  • Player execution −1.16 R/G Players fell 1.16 short of the lineup's 3.16 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −1.24 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Arozarena 0-for-3 batting 4th

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.1 – 3.2 — actual was 3 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.