ARCHIVE May 2, 2026
May 2, 2026 · NL East

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

May 2, 2026loanDepot parkRoof Closed 72°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Philadelphia Phillies
13-20
0
vs
HOME
Miami Marlins
16-17
4

Starting pitchers

AWAY · PHI
Andrew Painter
Andrew Painter
IP 5
HOME · MIA
Max Meyer
Max Meyer
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · PHI
  1. 1 Trea Turner SS
  2. 2 Kyle Schwarber DH
  3. 3 Bryce Harper 1B
  4. 4 Adolis García CF
  5. 5 Bryson Stott 2B
  6. 6 Alec Bohm 3B
  7. 7 J.T. Realmuto C
  8. 8 Garrett Stubbs LF
  9. 9 Felix Reyes RF
HOME · MIA
  1. 1 Jakob Marsee CF
  2. 2 Kyle Stowers RF
  3. 3 Otto Lopez SS
  4. 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
  5. 5 Liam Hicks C
  6. 6 Agustín Ramírez DH
  7. 7 Connor Norby 1B
  8. 8 Graham Pauley 3B
  9. 9 Esteury Ruiz LF

Box score

  123456789 R
PHI 000000000 0
MIA 002011000 4

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim
HOME · MIA
Clayton McCullough
C+ Lineup 1.4 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.6 R

Recent form

AWAY · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
LLWWWWLWWW
HOME · MIA
4-6 L1 -6 run diff
LWLLLLWLWW

Season series: 3-1 with PHI listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.22 vs actual lineup 3.14
  • Player execution −3.14 R/G Players fell 3.14 short of the lineup's 3.14 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −3.22 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Turner 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Miami Marlins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.72
  • Player execution −0.72 R/G Players fell 0.72 short of the lineup's 4.72 projection (scored 4)
  • Game variance −0.81 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Marsee 0-for-3 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.8 — actual was 0 – 4.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.