Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 George Springer DH
- 2 Ernie Clement SS
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
- 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
- 5 Lenyn Sosa 2B
- 6 Daulton Varsho CF
- 7 Myles Straw RF
- 8 Davis Schneider LF
- 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Josh Bell DH
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Kody Clemens 1B
- 6 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Brooks Lee SS
- 9 Tristan Gray 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| MIN | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 3-4 with TOR listed first across 7 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.72 vs actual lineup 3.74
- Player execution +7.26 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.74 projection by 7.26 (scored 11)
- Game variance +7.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Straw HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.48 vs actual lineup 3.49
- Player execution +0.51 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.49 projection by 0.51 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.52 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Bell 0-for-4 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.7 – 3.5 — actual was 11 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.