ARCHIVE May 1, 2026
May 1, 2026 · AL East

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

May 1, 2026Yankee StadiumClear 63°F · 15 mph, R To L
AWAY
Baltimore Orioles
15-17
2
vs
HOME
New York Yankees
21-11
7

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BAL
Cade Povich
Cade Povich
IP 4
HOME · NYY
Will Warren
Will Warren
IP 6.1

Lineups

AWAY · BAL
  1. 1 Gunnar Henderson SS
  2. 2 Taylor Ward LF
  3. 3 Adley Rutschman DH
  4. 4 Pete Alonso 1B
  5. 5 Samuel Basallo C
  6. 6 Dylan Beavers RF
  7. 7 Leody Taveras CF
  8. 8 Coby Mayo 3B
  9. 9 Blaze Alexander 2B
HOME · NYY
  1. 1 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
  2. 2 Ben Rice DH
  3. 3 Aaron Judge RF
  4. 4 Cody Bellinger LF
  5. 5 Amed Rosario 3B
  6. 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  7. 7 José Caballero SS
  8. 8 Austin Wells C
  9. 9 Trent Grisham CF

Box score

  123456789 R
BAL 010000100 2
NYY 140000110 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C+ / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · BAL
Craig Albernaz
C+ Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.8 R
HOME · NYY
Aaron Boone
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 1.1 R

Recent form

AWAY · BAL
3-7 L2 -25 run diff
LLWWLLLLWL
HOME · NYY
7-3 L1 +26 run diff
LWLWWWWWLW

Season series: 0-4 with BAL listed first across 4 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Baltimore Orioles
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.90 vs actual lineup 2.86
  • Player execution −0.86 R/G Players fell 0.86 short of the lineup's 2.86 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −0.90 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Henderson 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · New York Yankees
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.24 vs actual lineup 4.27
  • Player execution +2.73 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.27 projection by 2.73 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +2.76 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Caballero HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.9 – 4.2 — actual was 2 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.