ARCHIVE May 1, 2026
May 1, 2026 · NL Cent

Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 1, 2026Busch StadiumClear 60°F · 5 mph, L To R
AWAY
Los Angeles Dodgers
20-12
2
vs
HOME
St. Louis Cardinals
19-13
7

Starting pitchers

AWAY · LAD
Emmet Sheehan
Emmet Sheehan
IP 4.2
HOME · STL
Matthew Liberatore
Matthew Liberatore
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · LAD
  1. 1 Shohei Ohtani DH
  2. 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
  3. 3 Will Smith C
  4. 4 Teoscar Hernández LF
  5. 5 Kyle Tucker RF
  6. 6 Andy Pages CF
  7. 7 Max Muncy 3B
  8. 8 Miguel Rojas SS
  9. 9 Santiago Espinal 2B
HOME · STL
  1. 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
  2. 2 Iván Herrera DH
  3. 3 Alec Burleson 1B
  4. 4 Jordan Walker RF
  5. 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
  6. 6 Masyn Winn SS
  7. 7 Nathan Church LF
  8. 8 Pedro Pagés C
  9. 9 Victor Scott CF

Box score

  123456789 R
LAD 010001000 2
STL 301000300 7

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.

AWAY · LAD
Dave Roberts
B Lineup 0.2 R Bunts 0.3 R IBBs 1.0 R
HOME · STL
Oliver Marmol
B- Lineup 1.2 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · LAD
5-5 W1 +16 run diff
WLWWLLLLWW
HOME · STL
7-2 W1 +13 run diff
WL?WLWWWWW

Season series: 1-2 with LAD listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.19 vs actual lineup 4.29
  • Player execution −2.29 R/G Players fell 2.29 short of the lineup's 4.29 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Ohtani 0-for-5 batting 1st

HOME · St. Louis Cardinals
  • Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.81 vs actual lineup 4.89
  • Player execution +2.11 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.89 projection by 2.11 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +2.19 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Wetherholt 0-for-5 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.2 – 4.8 — actual was 2 – 7.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.