Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Geraldo Perdomo SS
- 2 Ildemaro Vargas 2B
- 3 Corbin Carroll RF
- 4 Adrian Del Castillo DH
- 5 Gabriel Moreno C
- 6 Jose Fernandez 1B
- 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 8 Alek Thomas CF
- 9 Jorge Barrosa LF
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Michael Busch 1B
- 7 Carson Kelly C
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Dansby Swanson SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| CHC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.10 vs actual lineup 4.11
- Player execution +0.89 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.11 projection by 0.89 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.90 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Carroll 0-for-5 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.07 vs actual lineup 4.12
- Player execution +1.88 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.12 projection by 1.88 (scored 6)
- Game variance +1.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Shaw 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 4.1 — actual was 5 – 6.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.