ARCHIVE May 1, 2026
May 1, 2026 · NL Cent

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs

May 1, 2026Wrigley FieldPartly Cloudy 44°F · 13 mph, In From CF
AWAY
Arizona Diamondbacks
16-15
5
vs
HOME
Chicago Cubs
20-12
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · AZ
Zac Gallen
Zac Gallen
IP 3.2
HOME · CHC
Colin Rea
Colin Rea
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · AZ
  1. 1 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  2. 2 Ildemaro Vargas 2B
  3. 3 Corbin Carroll RF
  4. 4 Adrian Del Castillo DH
  5. 5 Gabriel Moreno C
  6. 6 Jose Fernandez 1B
  7. 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
  8. 8 Alek Thomas CF
  9. 9 Jorge Barrosa LF
HOME · CHC
  1. 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
  2. 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
  3. 3 Alex Bregman 3B
  4. 4 Ian Happ LF
  5. 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
  6. 6 Michael Busch 1B
  7. 7 Carson Kelly C
  8. 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
  9. 9 Dansby Swanson SS

Box score

  123456789 R
AZ 001004000 5
CHC 300300000 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · AZ
Torey Lovullo
C- Lineup 2.0 R Bunts 2.1 R IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · CHC
Craig Counsell
C Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · AZ
3-7 L2 -15 run diff
LLWLLLLWLW
HOME · CHC
10-0 W10 +27 run diff
WWWWWWWWWW

Season series: 0-3 with AZ listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Manager lineup cost −0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.10 vs actual lineup 4.11
  • Player execution +0.89 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.11 projection by 0.89 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +0.90 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Carroll 0-for-5 batting 3rd

HOME · Chicago Cubs
  • Manager lineup cost −0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.07 vs actual lineup 4.12
  • Player execution +1.88 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.12 projection by 1.88 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.93 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Shaw 0-for-3 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.1 – 4.1 — actual was 5 – 6.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.