ARCHIVE May 1, 2026
May 1, 2026 · NL East

Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals

May 1, 2026Nationals ParkClear 66°F · 9 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Milwaukee Brewers
17-14
6
vs
HOME
Washington Nationals
15-18
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · MIL
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski
IP 5.1
HOME · WSH
Jake Irvin
Jake Irvin
IP 5

Lineups

AWAY · MIL
  1. 1 Garrett Mitchell CF
  2. 2 Brice Turang 2B
  3. 3 William Contreras C
  4. 4 Jake Bauers 1B
  5. 5 Luis Rengifo 3B
  6. 6 Tyler Black DH
  7. 7 Sal Frelick RF
  8. 8 Blake Perkins LF
  9. 9 David Hamilton SS
HOME · WSH
  1. 1 James Wood RF
  2. 2 Luis García Jr. DH
  3. 3 Curtis Mead 1B
  4. 4 CJ Abrams SS
  5. 5 Daylen Lile LF
  6. 6 Brady House 3B
  7. 7 Jorbit Vivas 2B
  8. 8 Drew Millas C
  9. 9 Jacob Young CF

Box score

  123456789 R
MIL 101020020 6
WSH 000000100 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C entering this matchup.

AWAY · MIL
Pat Murphy
B- Lineup 0.6 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.1 R
HOME · WSH
Blake Butera
C Lineup 1.6 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · MIL
6-3 W2 +33 run diff
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HOME · WSH
6-4 W3 +6 run diff
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Season series: 2-4 with MIL listed first across 6 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Milwaukee Brewers
  • Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.29 vs actual lineup 4.32
  • Player execution +1.68 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.32 projection by 1.68 (scored 6)
  • Game variance +1.71 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Bauers 0-for-3 batting 4th

HOME · Washington Nationals
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.17 vs actual lineup 3.16
  • Player execution −2.16 R/G Players fell 2.16 short of the lineup's 3.16 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −2.17 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Wood 0-for-4 batting 1st

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 3.2 — actual was 6 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.