ARCHIVE May 1, 2026
May 1, 2026 · AL Cent

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins

May 1, 2026Target FieldPartly Cloudy 53°F · 7 mph, Out To RF
AWAY
Toronto Blue Jays
15-17
7
vs
HOME
Minnesota Twins
14-19
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TOR
Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin
IP 5.1
HOME · MIN
Simeon Woods Richardson
Simeon Woods Richardson
IP 4.2

Lineups

AWAY · TOR
  1. 1 George Springer DH
  2. 2 Jesús Sánchez RF
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero 1B
  4. 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  5. 5 Daulton Varsho CF
  6. 6 Lenyn Sosa 2B
  7. 7 Yohendrick Pinango LF
  8. 8 Andrés Giménez SS
  9. 9 Tyler Heineman C
HOME · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Austin Martin RF
  3. 3 Ryan Jeffers DH
  4. 4 Josh Bell 1B
  5. 5 Victor Caratini C
  6. 6 Luke Keaschall 2B
  7. 7 Royce Lewis 3B
  8. 8 Brooks Lee SS
  9. 9 James Outman LF

Box score

  123456789 R
TOR 020220100 7
MIN 002000100 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R
HOME · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW
HOME · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL

Season series: 3-4 with TOR listed first across 7 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.65 vs actual lineup 4.63
  • Player execution +2.37 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.63 projection by 2.37 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +2.35 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Jr. 0-for-4 batting 3rd

HOME · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.81 vs actual lineup 3.81
  • Player execution −0.81 R/G Players fell 0.81 short of the lineup's 3.81 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.81 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lee 2-for-4 from the 8-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 3.8 — actual was 7 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.