ARCHIVE April 30, 2026
April 30, 2026 · NL East

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies

April 30, 2026Citizens Bank ParkPartly Cloudy 63°F · 9 mph, L To RGame 2 of doubleheader
AWAY
San Francisco Giants
13-18
5
vs
HOME
Philadelphia Phillies
12-19
6

Starting pitchers

AWAY · SF
Adrian Houser
Adrian Houser
IP 4.2
HOME · PHI
Trevor Richards
Trevor Richards
IP 2.1

Box score

  12345678910 R
SF 0001120010 5
PHI 2000200011 6

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.

AWAY · SF
Tony Vitello
B- Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 1.4 R
HOME · PHI
Don Mattingly
C- Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 0.4 R IBBs 0.7 R Interim

Recent form

AWAY · SF
1-8 L2 -25 run diff
LLWLLLLL?L
HOME · PHI
7-3 L2 +3 run diff
LLWWWWLWWW

Season series: 1-3 with SF listed first across 5 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · San Francisco Giants
  • Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.79 vs actual lineup 3.81
  • Player execution +1.19 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.81 projection by 1.19 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.21 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Chapman 0-for-4 batting 2nd

HOME · Philadelphia Phillies
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.91 vs actual lineup 4.89
  • Player execution −4.89 R/G Players fell 4.89 short of the lineup's 4.89 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −4.91 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.8 – 4.9 — actual was 5 – 0.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.