St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church LF
- 8 Pedro Pagés C
- 9 Victor Scott II CF
- 1 Oneil Cruz CF
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds RF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn DH
- 5 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 7 Konnor Griffin SS
- 8 Jake Mangum LF
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 4-0 with STL listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.53 vs actual lineup 3.49
- Player execution +6.51 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.49 projection by 6.51 (scored 10)
- Game variance +6.47 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Pagés 2-for-5 from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.84
- Player execution +0.16 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.84 projection by 0.16 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.14 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
O'Hearn 0-for-4 batting 4th
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.9 — actual was 10 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.