Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with HOU listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.89 vs actual lineup 4.85
- Player execution +6.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.85 projection by 6.15 (scored 11)
- Game variance +6.11 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Smith HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.96 vs actual lineup 4.99
- Player execution −1.99 R/G Players fell 1.99 short of the lineup's 4.99 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.96 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Henderson 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.9 – 5.0 — actual was 11 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.