Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Carlos Correa SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez LF
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Jose Altuve 2B
- 6 Yainer Diaz DH
- 7 Brice Matthews CF
- 8 Dustin Harris RF
- 9 Christian Vázquez C
- 1 Gunnar Henderson DH
- 2 Taylor Ward LF
- 3 Adley Rutschman C
- 4 Pete Alonso 1B
- 5 Dylan Beavers RF
- 6 Jeremiah Jackson 2B
- 7 Colton Cowser CF
- 8 Coby Mayo 3B
- 9 Blaze Alexander SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade D+ / C+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with HOU listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.19 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.64
- Player execution −1.64 R/G Players fell 1.64 short of the lineup's 4.64 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −1.84 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Walker 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost −0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.91 vs actual lineup 4.02
- Player execution +5.98 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.02 projection by 5.98 (scored 10)
- Game variance +6.09 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.9 — actual was 3 – 10.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.