Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Roman Anthony LF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 4 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 5 Trevor Story SS
- 6 Andruw Monasterio DH
- 7 Connor Wong C
- 8 Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B
- 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 1 Ernie Clement 2B
- 2 Jesús Sánchez RF
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
- 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
- 5 Daulton Varsho CF
- 6 Yohendrick Piñango DH
- 7 Myles Straw LF
- 8 Andrés Giménez SS
- 9 Brandon Valenzuela C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.81
- Player execution −3.81 R/G Players fell 3.81 short of the lineup's 4.81 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.84 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rafaela 0-for-4 batting 4th
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.68 vs actual lineup 4.65
- Player execution +3.35 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.65 projection by 3.35 (scored 8)
- Game variance +3.32 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Valenzuela HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 4.7 — actual was 1 – 8.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.