ARCHIVE April 29, 2026
April 29, 2026 · AL Cent

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins

April 29, 2026Target FieldPartly Cloudy 51°F · 12 mph, R To L
AWAY
Seattle Mariners
16-16
5
vs
HOME
Minnesota Twins
13-18
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · SEA
George Kirby
George Kirby
IP 5.2
HOME · MIN
Taj Bradley
Taj Bradley
IP 7

Lineups

AWAY · SEA
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Luke Raley RF
  7. 7 Dominic Canzone DH
  8. 8 Cole Young 2B
  9. 9 Will Wilson 3B
HOME · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Trevor Larnach LF
  3. 3 Josh Bell DH
  4. 4 Ryan Jeffers C
  5. 5 Kody Clemens 1B
  6. 6 Luke Keaschall 2B
  7. 7 Matt Wallner RF
  8. 8 Brooks Lee SS
  9. 9 Royce Lewis 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
SEA 001000103 5
MIN 000200010 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL
HOME · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL

Season series: 2-1 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost −0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.25
  • Player execution +1.75 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.25 projection by 1.75 (scored 5)
  • Game variance +1.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Raleigh 0-for-3 batting 2nd

HOME · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.14 vs actual lineup 3.08
  • Player execution −0.08 R/G Players fell 0.08 short of the lineup's 3.08 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.14 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Bell 0-for-5 batting 3rd

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 3.1 — actual was 5 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.