Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner SS
- 2 Moisés Ballesteros DH
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ LF
- 5 Michael Busch 1B
- 6 Michael Conforto RF
- 7 Matt Shaw 2B
- 8 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 9 Miguel Amaya C
- 1 Jackson Merrill CF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Manny Machado DH
- 4 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 5 Ty France 1B
- 6 Miguel Andujar 3B
- 7 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 8 Nick Castellanos LF
- 9 Luis Campusano C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with CHC listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.85 vs actual lineup 4.85
- Player execution +0.15 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.85 projection by 0.15 (scored 5)
- Game variance +0.15 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Shaw HR from the 7-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.94 vs actual lineup 3.92
- Player execution +0.08 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.92 projection by 0.08 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.06 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Merrill 0-for-3 batting 1st
Optimal lineups projected 4.8 – 3.9 — actual was 5 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.