ARCHIVE April 28, 2026
April 28, 2026 · AL East

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

April 28, 2026Rogers CentreRoof Closed 68°F · 0 mph, None
AWAY
Boston Red Sox
12-18
0
vs
HOME
Toronto Blue Jays
13-16
3

Starting pitchers

AWAY · BOS
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
IP 4.2
HOME · TOR
Trey Yesavage
Trey Yesavage
IP 5.1

Lineups

AWAY · BOS
  1. 1 Jarren Duran CF
  2. 2 Willson Contreras 1B
  3. 3 Roman Anthony LF
  4. 4 Wilyer Abreu RF
  5. 5 Trevor Story SS
  6. 6 Masataka Yoshida DH
  7. 7 Carlos Narváez C
  8. 8 Marcelo Mayer 2B
  9. 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
HOME · TOR
  1. 1 Myles Straw RF
  2. 2 Ernie Clement 2B
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  5. 5 Daulton Varsho CF
  6. 6 Eloy Jiménez DH
  7. 7 Davis Schneider LF
  8. 8 Tyler Heineman C
  9. 9 Andrés Giménez SS

Box score

  123456789 R
BOS 000000000 0
TOR 002010000 3

Manager comparison

Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · BOS
Chad Tracy
C- Lineup 2.8 R Bunts 0.1 R IBBs 0.2 R Interim
HOME · TOR
John Schneider
B Lineup 0.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 1.3 R

Recent form

AWAY · BOS
5-5 W1 -3 run diff
WLWWWLLWLL
HOME · TOR
5-5 W1 +8 run diff
WLLLLWWLWW

Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Boston Red Sox
  • Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.28 vs actual lineup 4.24
  • Player execution −4.24 R/G Players fell 4.24 short of the lineup's 4.24 projection (scored 0)
  • Game variance −4.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Duran 0-for-4 batting 1st

HOME · Toronto Blue Jays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.37 vs actual lineup 3.36
  • Player execution −0.36 R/G Players fell 0.36 short of the lineup's 3.36 projection (scored 3)
  • Game variance −0.37 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 3.4 — actual was 0 – 3.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.