Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jarren Duran CF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Roman Anthony LF
- 4 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 5 Trevor Story SS
- 6 Masataka Yoshida DH
- 7 Carlos Narváez C
- 8 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 1 Myles Straw RF
- 2 Ernie Clement 2B
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
- 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
- 5 Daulton Varsho CF
- 6 Eloy Jiménez DH
- 7 Davis Schneider LF
- 8 Tyler Heineman C
- 9 Andrés Giménez SS
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.04 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.28 vs actual lineup 4.24
- Player execution −4.24 R/G Players fell 4.24 short of the lineup's 4.24 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −4.28 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Duran 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.37 vs actual lineup 3.36
- Player execution −0.36 R/G Players fell 0.36 short of the lineup's 3.36 projection (scored 3)
- Game variance −0.37 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 4.3 – 3.4 — actual was 0 – 3.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.