Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 J.P. Crawford SS
- 2 Cal Raleigh C
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 Luke Raley RF
- 7 Dominic Canzone DH
- 8 Cole Young 2B
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Austin Martin RF
- 4 Josh Bell DH
- 5 Kody Clemens 1B
- 6 Victor Caratini C
- 7 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 8 Tristan Gray SS
- 9 Royce Lewis 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.89 vs actual lineup 3.87
- Player execution +3.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.87 projection by 3.13 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.11 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Raleigh 0-for-5 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.08 vs actual lineup 3.97
- Player execution −2.97 R/G Players fell 2.97 short of the lineup's 3.97 projection (scored 1)
- Game variance −3.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.1 — actual was 7 – 1.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.