ARCHIVE April 28, 2026
April 28, 2026 · AL Cent

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins

April 28, 2026Target FieldClear 55°F · 11 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Seattle Mariners
15-16
7
vs
HOME
Minnesota Twins
13-17
1

Starting pitchers

AWAY · SEA
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert
IP 5
HOME · MIN
Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan
IP 6

Lineups

AWAY · SEA
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Luke Raley RF
  7. 7 Dominic Canzone DH
  8. 8 Cole Young 2B
  9. 9 Leo Rivas 3B
HOME · MIN
  1. 1 Byron Buxton CF
  2. 2 Trevor Larnach LF
  3. 3 Austin Martin RF
  4. 4 Josh Bell DH
  5. 5 Kody Clemens 1B
  6. 6 Victor Caratini C
  7. 7 Luke Keaschall 2B
  8. 8 Tristan Gray SS
  9. 9 Royce Lewis 3B

Box score

  123456789 R
SEA 000001132 7
MIN 000010000 1

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.

AWAY · SEA
Dan Wilson
B- Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 0.2 R IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · MIN
Derek Shelton
B Lineup 0.8 R Bunts 0.5 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · SEA
5-5 W2 +2 run diff
WWLWLLLWWL
HOME · MIN
3-7 L3 -21 run diff
LLLWWLLWLL

Season series: 2-1 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Seattle Mariners
  • Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.89 vs actual lineup 3.87
  • Player execution +3.13 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.87 projection by 3.13 (scored 7)
  • Game variance +3.11 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Raleigh 0-for-5 batting 2nd

HOME · Minnesota Twins
  • Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.08 vs actual lineup 3.97
  • Player execution −2.97 R/G Players fell 2.97 short of the lineup's 3.97 projection (scored 1)
  • Game variance −3.08 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Lineup spots out of order vs season production

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.1 — actual was 7 – 1.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.