Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jarren Duran LF
- 2 Willson Contreras 1B
- 3 Roman Anthony DH
- 4 Wilyer Abreu RF
- 5 Trevor Story SS
- 6 Marcelo Mayer 2B
- 7 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
- 8 Carlos Narváez C
- 9 Caleb Durbin 3B
- 1 Myles Straw CF
- 2 Ernie Clement SS
- 3 Vladimir Guerrero 1B
- 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
- 5 Lenyn Sosa 2B
- 6 Eloy Jiménez DH
- 7 Jesús Sánchez RF
- 8 Davis Schneider LF
- 9 Tyler Heineman C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-2 with BOS listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.19 vs actual lineup 3.19
- Player execution +1.81 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.19 projection by 1.81 (scored 5)
- Game variance +1.81 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Narváez HR from the 8-hole
- Manager lineup cost −0.07 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.35 vs actual lineup 3.42
- Player execution −3.42 R/G Players fell 3.42 short of the lineup's 3.42 projection (scored 0)
- Game variance −3.35 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Clement 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 3.4 — actual was 5 – 0.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.