ARCHIVE April 27, 2026
April 27, 2026 · AL Cent

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians

April 27, 2026Progressive FieldCloudy 71°F · 13 mph, Out To LF
AWAY
Tampa Bay Rays
17-11
3
vs
HOME
Cleveland Guardians
15-15
2

Starting pitchers

AWAY · TB
Steven Matz
Steven Matz
IP 7
HOME · CLE
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
IP 5.2

Lineups

AWAY · TB
  1. 1 Yandy Díaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Junior Caminero 3B
  4. 4 Ryan Vilade RF
  5. 5 Jonny DeLuca CF
  6. 6 Chandler Simpson LF
  7. 7 Ben Williamson 2B
  8. 8 Nick Fortes C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS
HOME · CLE
  1. 1 Steven Kwan CF
  2. 2 Angel Martínez LF
  3. 3 José Ramírez 3B
  4. 4 Rhys Hoskins 1B
  5. 5 Chase DeLauter RF
  6. 6 David Fry DH
  7. 7 Daniel Schneemann 2B
  8. 8 Austin Hedges C
  9. 9 Brayan Rocchio SS

Box score

  123456789 R
TB 000001020 3
CLE 000020000 2

Manager comparison

Both managers grade B- / C+ entering this matchup.

AWAY · TB
Kevin Cash
B- Lineup 0.9 R Bunts 2.4 R IBBs 2.1 R
HOME · CLE
Stephen Vogt
C+ Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.7 R IBBs 0.4 R

Recent form

AWAY · TB
8-2 L1 +17 run diff
LWWWWWWWLW
HOME · CLE
6-4 W3 +7 run diff
WWWLLLWWWL

Season series: 2-1 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Tactical analysis

RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.

AWAY · Tampa Bay Rays
  • Manager lineup cost +0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.74 vs actual lineup 2.71
  • Player execution +0.29 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.71 projection by 0.29 (scored 3)
  • Game variance +0.26 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Díaz 0-for-3 batting 1st

HOME · Cleveland Guardians
  • Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.00 vs actual lineup 4.00
  • Player execution −2.00 R/G Players fell 2.00 short of the lineup's 4.00 projection (scored 2)
  • Game variance −2.00 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation

Schneemann HR from the 7-hole

COUNTERFACTUAL

Optimal lineups projected 2.7 – 4.0 — actual was 3 – 2.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.

Read the full methodology.