Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Jakob Marsee CF
- 2 Kyle Stowers LF
- 3 Otto Lopez SS
- 4 Xavier Edwards 2B
- 5 Liam Hicks DH
- 6 Agustín Ramírez C
- 7 Owen Caissie RF
- 8 Javier Sanoja 3B
- 9 Connor Norby 1B
- 1 Shohei Ohtani DH
- 2 Freddie Freeman 1B
- 3 Will Smith C
- 4 Kyle Tucker RF
- 5 Teoscar Hernández LF
- 6 Max Muncy 3B
- 7 Andy Pages CF
- 8 Hyeseong Kim SS
- 9 Alex Freeland 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| LAD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with MIA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.02 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.17 vs actual lineup 3.15
- Player execution +0.85 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.15 projection by 0.85 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.83 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Stowers 0-for-5 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 5.04 vs actual lineup 5.12
- Player execution −0.12 R/G Players fell 0.12 short of the lineup's 5.12 projection (scored 5)
- Game variance −0.04 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Smith 0-for-5 batting 3rd
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 5.0 — actual was 4 – 5.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.