Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Rob Refsnyder RF
- 2 Cal Raleigh DH
- 3 Julio Rodríguez CF
- 4 Josh Naylor 1B
- 5 Randy Arozarena LF
- 6 J.P. Crawford SS
- 7 Mitch Garver C
- 8 Cole Young 2B
- 9 Leo Rivas 3B
- 1 Byron Buxton CF
- 2 Brooks Lee SS
- 3 Trevor Larnach LF
- 4 Josh Bell DH
- 5 Ryan Jeffers C
- 6 Kody Clemens 1B
- 7 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 8 Matt Wallner RF
- 9 Tristan Gray 3B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with SEA listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.93 vs actual lineup 3.86
- Player execution +0.14 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.86 projection by 0.14 (scored 4)
- Game variance +0.07 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Rodríguez 0-for-4 batting 3rd
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution +6.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 6.24 (scored 11)
- Game variance +6.23 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lee 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.9 – 4.8 — actual was 4 – 11.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.