Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Nico Hoerner 2B
- 2 Michael Busch 1B
- 3 Alex Bregman 3B
- 4 Ian Happ DH
- 5 Seiya Suzuki RF
- 6 Moisés Ballesteros C
- 7 Michael Conforto LF
- 8 Dansby Swanson SS
- 9 Pete Crow-Armstrong CF
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis 2B
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Miguel Andujar DH
- 7 Ty France 1B
- 8 Nick Castellanos RF
- 9 Freddy Fermin C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| SD | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C / B entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with CHC listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.03 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.20 vs actual lineup 3.24
- Player execution +3.76 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.24 projection by 3.76 (scored 7)
- Game variance +3.80 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Hoerner 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.11 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.76 vs actual lineup 4.65
- Player execution +4.35 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.65 projection by 4.35 (scored 9)
- Game variance +4.24 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
France 2-for-3 from the 7-hole
Optimal lineups projected 3.2 – 4.8 — actual was 7 – 9.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.