St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 JJ Wetherholt 2B
- 2 Iván Herrera DH
- 3 Alec Burleson 1B
- 4 Jordan Walker RF
- 5 Nolan Gorman 3B
- 6 Masyn Winn SS
- 7 Nathan Church CF
- 8 Thomas Saggese LF
- 9 Pedro Pagés C
- 1 Spencer Horwitz 1B
- 2 Brandon Lowe 2B
- 3 Bryan Reynolds LF
- 4 Ryan O'Hearn RF
- 5 Marcell Ozuna DH
- 6 Nick Gonzales 3B
- 7 Konnor Griffin SS
- 8 Jake Mangum CF
- 9 Henry Davis C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B- / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 4-0 with STL listed first across 4 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.12 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.45 vs actual lineup 2.33
- Player execution +1.67 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.33 projection by 1.67 (scored 4)
- Game variance +1.55 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Pagés HR from the 9-hole
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.84 vs actual lineup 4.78
- Player execution −2.78 R/G Players fell 2.78 short of the lineup's 4.78 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −2.84 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lowe 0-for-3 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 2.5 – 4.8 — actual was 4 – 2.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.