New York Yankees vs Houston Astros
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Trent Grisham CF
- 2 Ben Rice DH
- 3 Aaron Judge RF
- 4 Cody Bellinger LF
- 5 Jazz Chisholm 2B
- 6 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
- 7 J.C. Escarra C
- 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
- 9 José Caballero SS
- 1 Carlos Correa SS
- 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
- 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
- 4 Christian Walker 1B
- 5 Cam Smith RF
- 6 Dustin Harris LF
- 7 Christian Vázquez C
- 8 Daniel Johnson CF
- 9 Braden Shewmake 2B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| HOU | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade C+ / D+ entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 2-1 with NYY listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost −0.08 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 2.53 vs actual lineup 2.61
- Player execution +1.39 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 2.61 projection by 1.39 (scored 4)
- Game variance +1.47 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Grisham 0-for-4 batting 1st
- Manager lineup cost +0.10 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.86 vs actual lineup 4.76
- Player execution +2.24 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.76 projection by 2.24 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.14 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
Optimal lineups projected 2.5 – 4.9 — actual was 4 – 7.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.