Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Brooks Lee SS
- 2 Trevor Larnach LF
- 3 Josh Bell DH
- 4 Ryan Jeffers C
- 5 Kody Clemens 1B
- 6 Luke Keaschall 2B
- 7 Matt Wallner RF
- 8 Royce Lewis 3B
- 9 James Outman CF
- 1 Chandler Simpson LF
- 2 Junior Caminero 3B
- 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
- 4 Yandy Díaz DH
- 5 Jake Fraley RF
- 6 Ben Williamson 2B
- 7 Cedric Mullins CF
- 8 Taylor Walls SS
- 9 Hunter Feduccia C
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / B- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 0-3 with MIN listed first across 3 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.01 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.47 vs actual lineup 3.46
- Player execution −1.46 R/G Players fell 1.46 short of the lineup's 3.46 projection (scored 2)
- Game variance −1.47 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Larnach 0-for-3 batting 2nd
- Manager lineup cost +0.05 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.77 vs actual lineup 4.72
- Player execution −0.72 R/G Players fell 0.72 short of the lineup's 4.72 projection (scored 4)
- Game variance −0.77 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Caminero 0-for-4 batting 2nd
Optimal lineups projected 3.5 – 4.8 — actual was 2 – 4.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.