San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting pitchers
Lineups
- 1 Ramón Laureano LF
- 2 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- 3 Jackson Merrill CF
- 4 Manny Machado 3B
- 5 Xander Bogaerts SS
- 6 Gavin Sheets 1B
- 7 Miguel Andujar DH
- 8 Luis Campusano C
- 9 Jake Cronenworth 2B
- 1 Ildemaro Vargas 2B
- 2 Ketel Marte DH
- 3 Corbin Carroll RF
- 4 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
- 5 Adrian Del Castillo C
- 6 Jose Fernandez SS
- 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
- 8 Alek Thomas CF
- 9 Tim Tawa 1B
Box score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
Manager comparison
Both managers grade B / C- entering this matchup.
Recent form
Season series: 1-1 with SD listed first across 2 prior meetings.
Tactical analysis
RunsLeft separates manager decisions from player execution from game variance. Each card below is the same three-number framework that drives the share cards on the SPA replay page.
- Manager lineup cost +0.00 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 4.73 vs actual lineup 4.73
- Player execution +2.27 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 4.73 projection by 2.27 (scored 7)
- Game variance +2.27 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Lineup spots out of order vs season production
- Manager lineup cost +0.06 R/G Optimal arrangement projects 3.15 vs actual lineup 3.09
- Player execution +8.91 R/G Players exceeded the lineup's 3.09 projection by 8.91 (scored 12)
- Game variance +8.85 R/G Total game outcome vs optimal expectation
Tawa HR from the 9-hole
Optimal lineups projected 4.7 – 3.1 — actual was 7 – 12.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. Tactical analysis comes from a per-game Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated games against the opposing starter's ERA, both for the actual lineup the manager wrote and for the optimal arrangement of those nine players. The three numbers — manager cost, player execution, game variance — separate which part of the result was the lineup, the players, or the dice.